Postoperative subphenotypes modified the hepatoma arterial-embolization prognostic score: A novel smHAP-II nomogram.

Background: Three subphenotypes were identified for unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (uHCC) after frontline transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). This study aimed to develop an individual smHAP-Ⅱ nomogram for uHCC patients after TACE. Methods: Between January 2007 to December 2016, 1517 uHCC patients undergoing TACE were included from four hospitals in China (derivation cohort: 597 cases; validation cohort: 920 cases). Multivariable Cox proportion regression analysis was used to develop a nomogram, incorporating postoperative subphenotypes (Phenotype 1, 2, 3) and HAP score (Score 0 to 4). The model was validated by a 1000-time bootstrap resampling procedure. The performance of the model was compared with existing ones by Harrell's C-index and Area Under Curve (AUC). Results: Postoperative subphenotypes modified the HAP score (smHAP-Ⅱ nomogram) was developed and validated, with the Harrell's C-index of the nomogram was 0.679 (SD: 0.029) for the derivation cohort and 0.727(SD:0.029) for the external cohort. The area under curves of the nomogram for 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS were 0.750, 0.710, and 0.732 for the derivation cohort, respectively (0.789, 0.762, and 0.715 for the external cohort). In the calibration curves stratified by treatment after TACE, the lines for re-TACE and stop-TACE cross at 0.23, indicating that patients with a 3-year predicted survival >23% would not benefit from TACE. Conclusions: The addition of postoperative subphenotypes significantly improved the prognostic performance. The smHAP-Ⅱ nomogram can be used for accurate prognostication and selection of optimal candidates for TACE, with the value to guide sequential treatment strategy.

A Longitudinal Study of AFP Trajectories and Clinical Outcomes in Intermediate-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Hepatectomy.

Background: Previous studies have shown that the alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) response has been a key tumour marker in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but its definition remains controversial. Recently, a new study has explored and defined the AFP serological response and used it to explain the subclass of intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (IM-HCC) with "sharp-falling" AFP change after transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). It may be a new and simple tool for assessing the prognosis of patients. This study aims to explore a simplified AFP trajectory and its impact on overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) for IM-HCC after hepatectomy. Patients and Methods: Between January 2007 and May 2012, data from the Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center was examined in this longitudinal, retrospective cohort study. A generalized additive model was applied to distinguish potential AFP dynamic trajectories. The Kaplan-Meier method was applied to analyze OS and DFS, and multivariate Cox models were used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% CIs for overall survival. Results: 144 patients who had IM-HCC with at least three AFP repeat measurements were included in the study. Three similar trajectories are displayed using the generalized additive model: low-stable (35.4%; n = 51), high-rising (36.1%; n = 52), and sharp-falling (28.5%; n = 41). Compared with the low-stable class, the aHRs for death were 2.84 (1.50, 5.41) and 0.59 (0.25, 1.40) for the high-rising and sharp-falling classes, adjusted by age and log AFP. Simplified AFP trajectory had higher relative importance than sex, intrahepatic tumor number, Child-Pugh class, and baseline AFP. Conclusion: The simplified AFP trajectory is a promising biomarker for IM-HCC patients undergoing hepatectomy. In the future, it should be verified by a larger population containing various stages of HCC.

Prognosis of Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treated with Transarterial Chemoembolization(MC-hccAI 001): Development and Validation of the ALFP Score.

Background: Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is the recommended first-line treatment for intermediate-stage Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. However, predicting the survival of HCC patients receiving TACE remains challenging. Methods: In this retrospective study, we analyzed a total of 1805 HCC patients who received TACE. The patients were randomly divided into a training set (n = 1264) and a validation set (n = 541). We examined various prognostic factors within the training set and developed a simple ALFP (ALBI grade, AFP, and Prothrombin time) score, which was subsequently validated using the independent validation set. Results: Our multivariate analysis revealed that baseline ALBI grade 2 or 3, AFP ≥ 100 ng/mL, and PT > 13.1 s were independent unfavorable prognostic factors for HCC patients receiving TACE (p < 0.05). Based on these findings, we constructed the ALFP score, which assigns 1 point each for ALBI grade 2 or 3, AFP ≥ 100 ng/mL, and PT > 13.1 s. The score has a range of 0 to 3, and higher scores are associated with poorer outcomes. The median overall survival (OS) varied significantly among different ALFP score groups, both in the training set and the validation set (p < 0.001). We further examined the ALFP score in subgroups based on tumor diameter and the number of intrahepatic lesions. In each subgroup, higher ALFP scores were consistently associated with lower OS (p < 0.05). Conclusion: Our study confirms the prognostic value of the ALFP score in predicting the survival of HCC patients undergoing TACE. The score incorporates easily obtainable baseline parameters and provides a simple and practical tool for risk stratification and treatment decision-making in HCC patients.